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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

CRISIS:A NEW ROAD FOR HUMANITY "OECOUMENIZATION" HAPPY AND HEALTHY 2010 FOR OUR OECOS

ON THE TITLED LINK WE SHALL BE REDIRECTED AND READ AN ARTICLE OF FAMOUS PROFESSOR ROUBINI

The Gold Bubble and the Gold Bugs

BUT THE REALITY IS GIVEN BETTER BY THE AUTHOR OF THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES.THE OLD SYSTEM IS USING COMPLEXED EXCUSES,FOR COVERING ITS INABILITY TO OPERATING.
THE LATEST ARE THE GOSSIPS AND IDEAS ABOUT THE FANTASTIC ECONOMIC DEPT PROBLEMS FOR GREECE AND DUBAI,WHEN THE WHOLE SYSTEM (ALL COUNTRIES,PEOPLE,ENTERPRISES ETC) IS DEBITED TO THE SAME CREDITORS,WITH PAPER MONEY.


A)If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?- Total Intervention Thursday By the US and ?????

Today is a fantastic buying opportunity for those who thought that they missed the Gold and Silver Boat. Today's action is the Cartel along with some other entites that really are hoping for a strong dollar, believing that they can make big changes through intervention. Guess what, the cat is out of the bag and this type of intervention is going to backfire because a new breed of longs have abandoned their black boxes, margin and the trading mentality and started following fundementals. Last Friday the MOPE (managment of perceptual economics) tactic used to bomb gold and prop up the dollar was the ridiculous non farm pay rolls employment number. Today its that the problem with debt and possible sovereign debt failure in Greece and the Fed's outlook that the US economy is recovering.

First of all the Fed's outlook on the economy:

November tax receipts just don't support that theisis in my opinion:

November tax data:

Income Taxes Withheld -10.98% y/y
Individual Tax Receipts -20.36% y/y
Definitely no signs of improvement.

As for the action in the dollar and gold today, I'll on an excerpt from yesterday's Midas Letters:

"…UNLESS YOU KNOW ABOUT THE PRICE SUPPRESSION SCHEME AND HOW MUCH CENTRAL BANK GOLD THE GOLD CARTEL WENT THOUGH IN ORDER TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE, YOU WILL ALWAYS BE CLUELESS ABOUT WHAT GOLD IS DOING AND WHY. UNLESS YOU KNOW ABOUT WHAT CAUSED THE MASSIVE SHORT POSITIONS IN GOLD, THEN YOU CANNOT EVER GET IT RIGHT AS TO WHAT THE GOLD PRICE WILL DO IN THE MONTHS AND YEARS AHEAD!!!"

Finally, I believe the Chinese really want into gold at a better price and for that reason, the US and China's short term goals are alligned. However, I think if the Chinese actually understool the GATA story, they would know that Gold would be a great deal even at $2,500 an ounce and that its probably going well above $5,000 and to be tinkering with the market at these levels along with anti-gold pirates is not a good long term strategy. You can pump the dollar up for a few weeks, even a few months, but what is happening in Greece is a microcosm of a much bigger currency avalanche building in the US dollar.

Rick Ackerman made a great post on the subject of the last paragraph recently:

Are U.S. and China Together on Gold?

"…With Time magazine’s momentous selection of Ben Bernanke as Person of the Year, there were reports of people dancing in the streets in, um, Oslo. Leave it to Time to figure out a way to make Henry Luce roll in his grave while the magazine tries to outdo rival Newsweek in the race to claim publishing’s trophy for irrelevance. While the understandably isolated delirium over Bernanke’s selection subsides, we thought we’d update the prospectus on gold with a contribution from a Rick’s Picks subscriber who has requested anonymity. His thoughts run counter to the popular notion that investors can count on steady buying from China to lend buoyancy to bullion quotes. As the writer makes clear, China may have a mind of its own, and it will not always be perfectly aligned with the thinking of gold bulls. Here we go:

While many precious metals bulls have been insisting for months that China is gold and silver’s greatest ally, we saw first-hand last week exactly how capable the Chinese are of pulling a rabbit out of a hat when need be. Much of the finger wagging for the recent decline in the price of gold – as usual – has been directed towards those dastardly Americans. This time






around, the gold bull’s disdain had to do with the recent US jobs report on December 4. Yes, the numbers – which are unquestionably fabricated – had an impact on the precious metal markets; nevertheless, those gold bulls who insist upon using the adage of “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil,” where China is concerned are fooling themselves and living in a sugar-coated dream world.

A full two days ahead of the jobs report, Chinese officials called gold’s recent surge a “speculative frenzy.” Yet, it is the jobs data that bears the brunt of the blame for gold’s pullback. China had nothing whatsoever to do with this? Since when did they become our friend? Furthermore, how do we know the U.S. and China didn’t act in unison here? A little of the “I’ll-scratch-your back, you-scratch-mine,” thing between old friends.


Damned Lies, and Statistics

Phony jobs report or not, who in their right mind believes statistics coming out of the U.S. to begin with? Perhaps those who frequent tractor pulls and WWE wrestling events are so naive. Maybe even Middle America. But then, they’re not typically the ones buying gold, are they?

Big government is big government, and while China and the U.S. clearly have their differences, they also have a responsibility to co-exist and cooperate wherever possible, even though what we read in the papers and see on television often appears to dispute that. Why would anyone think China is any less qualified than the U.S. for pulling off a performance in price suppression where gold is concerned? Now that is naïveté."

Big intervention days are great days to buy physical gold. My rule is never use margin and only buy on big pull backs. Both conditions are active today.

B)"Fitch warns that Britain and France risk losing their AAA rating" – The Debt Virus is Accelerating

When we had gold as a regulator of debt, and the existance of derivatives nominally valued by the Bank of International Settlements at around $1 Quadrillion, and unknown total of fiduciary media floating in cyberspace was science fiction or more likely a nightmare, money had meaning and the only thing that could bring on such debt imbalances was the planned wars which profited only a very few of the smartest financiers who under wrote the wars and thereby became more powerful than governments. Problem is now that so much money has been loaned and the advent of the computer has made is temporarily possible to substitute a massively complex illusion in place of real money. Such illusions, even when performing trillions of computations per second can not withstand the winds of economic and financial reality, which ultimately require money to be an actual store of value and to be un-encumbered of any function that to hold value.

In the meantime, even the agencies which were central to rating so many of the "toxic assets" as AAA via the securitization and derivatives process are now admitting that soverign debt is going to be more of a risk. I believe they greatly under state it as they greatly over stated the value of much of what we now call "toxic assets."

Those who believe that the US is less of a risk need to see both the trees and the forrest. Perhaps the forrest only looks pretty bad, but when you look at State Budgets, Debt and go deeper to municipalities and cities, to see the trees, you can see that the forrest is in deeper trouble.

While the entire question of where did these entities once called "banks" get the money to pay back TARP without dropping their stock values far more than they dropped during the dillution has not been addressed, much less answered by the mainstream financial or general investigative journalism core because the new standard in journalism is "don't rock the boat," the question of why the US political system can not use the money it does borrow to actually make the US a much smarter economy stands. We should be pressing not for bigger farms with more genetically modified fruits, veggies and meats in our stores, but towards smaller family farms and means by which we can cut down on the over concentration of wealth, which saps would be consumers from the ability to purchase more local products to stimulate actual wealth and spending and efficiency. We should not be encouraging one company to try to buy up and dominate the and own patents on every food seed in the world via genetic modification but anti-trust and pro-competition measures.

The lessons of the Great Depression that we did learn and in some measure apply such as the Glass Stegal act and the anti-trust laws and the idea that if you take care of the middle class, the middle class takes care of corporate America, and the idea that competition and more evenly distributed wealth is far more efficient, stable and sustainable than ever increasing concentrations of wealth, corporate and banking power and decreasing competition and monopolization as we now see in agriculture, banking, oil, airlines, insurance, and stock brokering.

The new financial reform bill studiously exempts most of the big players and is filled with so much obfuscating complexity that it creates a snow blizzard of language while allowing the same thieves to steal off in the night and allowing them the power to obliterate our economy in my opinion. You can read about that here at MSN market talk in a post I helped a message board friend get started:

The Root of the Financial Tsunami and A Solution: Banks Unleashed, OTC Derivatives, Phantom Money and Deregulation. – The thinking of Old and gray on the Financial Crisis.

n the meantime here is the link and an excerpt from the Telegraph in the UK entitled:

Fitch warns that Britain and France risk losing their AAA rating

"…Fitch Ratings has given its bluntest warning to date that Britain and France risk losing their AAA status unless they map out a clear path to budget discipline over the next year…"


SOURCE http://www.duffminster.com/

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Monday, December 21, 2009

Turkey’s Geopolitical Role: The Energy Angle

THE ARTICLE IS REFERRING TO THE KNOWN FROM CENTURIES IMPORTANT ROLE FOR THE TERRITORY OF MINOR ASIA TO THE GLOBAL AFFAIRS,BEING FOCUSED AT A MODERN THEMATIC :ENERGY.
FROM THE ARTICLE'S POINT OF VIEW AND BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS,THE IDEA IS RIGHT.BUT STABILITY ON ALL LEVELS OF STATE'S ADMINISTRATION,INSIDE THE DEMOCRATIC VALUES,CAN ONLY GUARANTY THE IDEA FOR BEING TURKEY,A HUGE HUB,AGGREGATOR ETC,FOR ENERGY AND OTHER COMMODITIES,WHICH WILL HAVE REMARKABLE CONSEQUENCES FOR COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC FUTURE.
BUT TURKEY'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY LEADERSHIP,ARE HESITATING TO IMPLEMENTING RAPIDLY THESE GLOBAL VALUES.THAT AFFECTS NOT ONLY IN STATE'S SECURITY ,BUT ALSO AT POPULATION'S HOPES FOR A MODERNIZED AND PROSPEROUS WESTERN SOCIETY,BUT MORE TO THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS....

AGGELOS CHARLAFTIS

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

ONLY HELLENIC STYLE,BY THE SUBSTANCE OF OECOS, CAN RESPECT AND PRESERVE NATURE

'Copenhagen Is About Doing As Little As Possible'




Interview with US Economist Dennis Meadows

With his 1972 book "The Limits to Growth," Dennis Meadows was one of the first to warn about the looming environmental crisis. The US economist spoke to SPIEGEL ONLINE about the need to drastically change our behavior and why he doesn't expect much from the global climate change summit in Copenhagen.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Meadows, you simulated the future of the Earth back in 1972 with less computing power than a Blackberry. How good was your model on the limits to growth?

Dennis Meadows: Amazingly good, unfortunately. We are in the midst of an environmental crisis, which we predicted then. The difference is that we have lost 40 years during which humanity should have acted.


SPIEGLE ONLINE: You have been one of those warning about the environment ever since the first publication of your book. Now representatives of almost 200 countries are gathering to tackle the environmental crisis. Are you satisfied?

Meadows: Copenhagen? I don't take it seriously. The whole thing is a huge ploy. I am outraged because the situation is outrageous. If we rely on conferences instead of changing our lifestyles then things look bad.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: But the world is now looking to Copenhagen, to see if politicians can bring about a solution to the climate problem.

Meadows: The world? I think 98 percent of humans haven't even heard the word Copenhagen, not to speak of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change there. If people were to come together there with a fresh mind to achieve something then it would look different. This conference is essentially about doing as little as possible, not as much as possible.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You ask people to make personal sacrifices in order to preserve the environment and resources?

Meadows: I don't ask for it but I say if we don't change our behavior then we will be in serious trouble. People are getting sidetracked if they think that new green technology will solve all the problems. There is no magic button. It is about our lifestyles.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Changing our personal behavior will make everything better?

Meadows: When it comes to oil dependency, yes; but when it comes to climate change, I think we are too late. It might have been possible to prevent serious climate change in the 1970s and 1980s, but it isn't any more. We have pumped enough carbon dioxide already into the atmosphere to cause global warming. We are on a roller coaster at the top of the hill and all we can do is hold on tight.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Then does it make any sense to reduce CO2 emissions?

Meadows: Absolutely, but that will only limit climate change, not prevent it.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You sound pretty pessimistic.

Meadows: No. We won't die out as a species. Humanity has already survived the Ice Age, and now we will survive an age of warmth. I doubt, however, that in the end there will be billions of us flying around the world in planes and driving huge cars.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: We will live like today's poorest people, those who emit hardly any carbon dioxide?

Meadows: That is not my role model. I lived long enough in a country like Afghanistan to know that I don't want us to have to live like that in the future. But we have to learn to live a life that allows for fulfilment and development, with the CO2 emissions of Afghanistan.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is it possible to have 9 billion people on the planet?

Meadows: No. Even 7 billion is too much -- at least if they are all to have an appropriate standard of living. If you think it is acceptable to have a small elite that enjoys a decent lifestyle and a large majority that is excluded from that, then the Earth can probably sustain 5 to 6 billion people. If you want everyone to have the full potential of mobility, adequate food and self-development, then it is 1 or 2 billion.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How does one achieve that?

Meadows: I have no idea. I am an ethical person and I wouldn't hurt a fly. The problem is that with our current lifestyle we are hurting the people of the future.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You don't have a recipe for saving the world?

Meadows: We don't have to save the world. The world will save itself, like it always has. Sometimes it takes a few million years until the damage is repaired and a new balance has been established. The question is much more: How do we save our civilization?

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How do you deal with the fact that your analyses have failed to bring about any real changes?

Meadows: A long time ago I thought we would have to achieve a total utopia in order to avoid total collapse. Today I am somewhat more balanced. For me personally it is enough if I make the world a little better than it would have been without me. Everyone should rethink their own lifestyle, their carbon footprint and try to think one step ahead into the future.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What has the reaction been to this kind of advice?

Meadows: A fashion editor once asked me about lifestyle changes. I asked her how many pairs of shoes she had. It was 18. I advised her that three pairs would be enough. Unfortunately the article was never published. Many habits are deeply rooted and it takes practice to get rid of them.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How will the necessary changes come about?

Meadows: Through a series of crises. It is only when there are abrupt climate changes, unpleasant ones, that the willingness will come about to really do something. We have to use these opportunities. We didn't use them during the financial crisis. The opportunity to change something was wasted, despite the crisis.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Some people might regard you as an angry prophet from the Old Testament.

Meadows: Nonsense. Our first book had 13 different scenarios for how the Earth and humanity would develop. Of these, eight or nine were catastrophic, the others were not. But no one was interested in the positive scenarios. They weren't reported upon and people didn't try to live them out. I am not preoccupied with doomsday scenarios. Most other people, however, are.

Interview conducted by Christian Schwägerl

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Saturday, December 05, 2009

Solar Power and Geopolitics in the Mediterranean



The Mediterranean Solar Plan still is an idea in the heads of leaders and policy makers. But its ambitions are vast.

The idea is to build renewable energy hubs — based mostly on solar technologies — across North Africa to increase local energy security, provide millions of new jobs in countries like Egypt and Morocco and generate plentiful amounts of green electricity for export to Europe.

The project is part of an initiative formally presented by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France in July 2008 for a so-called Union for the Mediterranean to bring the interests of European Union and North Africa closer together.

Underlining the geopolitical role that renewable power could play in the region, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European Union’s commissioner for external relations and the European Neighborhood Policy, said the project could foster economic stability in North Africa while helping Europe break its dependence on gas from Russia, which cut off supplies to Europe in January as part of a dispute with Ukraine.
Ms. Ferrero-Waldner, whose speech on Friday formed part of Sustainable Energy Week at European Union headquarters in Brussels, added that Germany already accounted for half of the solar capacity installed worldwide and that Europe could share its technology with North Africa to create a “green Mediterranean electricity market.”

Philippe Lorec, a senior energy and industry official in France, said the goal was to start dozens of projects creating up to 1 gigawatt of power in the region over the next two years and then to introduce another 19 gigawatts of power over the next 19 years. Mr. Lorec, who spoke at the same event as Ms. Ferrero-Waldner, underlined the need for technology transfers, training and adequate manufacturing sites.

Mr. Lorec also said he had recently visited Washington to meet with Obama administration officials on how to coordinate solar technologies and make the technology cost-competitive with fossil fuel power. Mr. Lorec said Europe could build on industrial clusters that already exist in some parts of North Africa, such as Cairo, and that a core group comprised of France, Egypt, Morocco, Spain, Italy, Germany and European Commission would lead the plan.

He said public and private investors — in particular sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, investors in Norway and the European Investment Bank — already were showing interest partly because they were reassured there was a “political umbrella” over the plan.

But some speakers expressed concerns that the project could become bogged down by any failure by European and African nations to make on their Union for the Mediterranean, and if the project focuses too heavily on one particular technology like concentrating solar power, which is expensive.

“We could go ahead even without” the Union, said Roberto Vigotti of the Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie, a research association based in France, referring to the solar plan.

Karim Asali, the head of Middle East and Africa market development for First Solar, a photovoltaic solar panel maker based in Tempe, Ariz., also underlined the readiness of the industry to make swift progress on turning North Africa into a major green-energy producer.

Mr. Asali, who said he was speaking on behalf of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, which is based in Brussels, said that his company alone could produce enough modules over the course of this year to generate 1 gigawatt of electricity and that, technologically, there would be no obstacle to producing 20 gigawatts in North Africa by 2020.

By JAMES KANTER

source new york times

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