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Monday, June 20, 2011

THE DECLINE OF THE GLOBALISTS

(CLICKING ON THE TITLE WE ARE REDIRECTED TO AN ARTICLE  FROM FORBES  WRITTEN  ON  01.27.09   Corruption And The Global Financial Crisis )

DEAR READERS AND FOLLOWERS,HELLO,
THE MESSAGES FROM THE GLOBALISTS DECISIONS,THROUGH THE NOMENCLATURE OF PARTIES POLITICIANS OR OTHER CLUBS,ORGANIZATIONS AND POLICY ADVISERS BODIES,ARE INDICATING,THAT OUR PREDICTIONS (SOME OF THEM BEING PRESENTED HERE) FOR THE LAST 15 YEARS ARE RIGHT .
THE PROBLEM ISN'T OF COURSE EUROZONE AND ESPECIALLY GREECE (APART FROM ARROGANCE).
THE LETS SAY EUROZONE PROBLEM IS USED BY NEW YORK'S POLICIES IN ORDER TO ATTRACT ATTENTION TO THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY,SO THAT PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT EURO'S STABILITY,IS THE MAIN CONCERN ,WHEN AT THE SAME TIME THE GLOBALISTS ARE TRYING TO COVER AND FIND SOLUTIONS TO THEIR UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS.

EUROPEAN CITIZENS,
WE REPEAT ONCE  MORE ,A STRONG EURO ISN'T FOR OUR ECONOMIES BENEFIT,BUT FOR THE BENEFIT OF OTHERS ,AS IT IS DESCRIBED TO OUR PREVIOUS PRESENTATIONS HERE.
THE GREEK PROBLEM ,APART FROM IRELAND'S,PORTUGAL'S AND THE OTHERS WHICH ARE GOING TO FOLLOW,ACTUALLY IS AN ADVANTAGE FOR US AND OUR CONTINENTAL AND MEDITERRANEAN PARTNERS AND POLICIES.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

A.CH.


Geithner warns on light-touch oversight

Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, warned overseas markets against undercutting American financial regulations financial regulations, urging them to avoid following the “tragic” example that the UK set in light-touch oversight.

In outspoken remarks that outlined the US position on a range of international regulatory issues, Mr Geithner called for a global deal on derivatives and endorsed forcing the largest banks to hold more equity capital. But such a surcharge need not be “excessive”.

Mr Geithner said it was essential for Asia to fall into line in imposing tough restrictions on derivatives trading. Officials said there was concern that Singapore and Hong Kong could try to lure business with softer rules.

Alluding to the painful fallout from the financial crisis, Mr Geithner held up the UK’s past policies as a negative example.

“The United Kingdom’s experiment in a strategy of light-touch regulation to attract business to London away from New York and Frankfurt ended tragically,” he said. “That should be a cautionary note for other countries deciding whether to try to take advantage of the rise in standards in the United States.”

“As we act to contain risk in the US, we want to minimise the chances that it simply moves to other markets around the world,” Mr Geithner says. He says the US is going to “bring the world with us”.

Mr Geithner called for global agreement on how much collateral, or “margin”, to impose on uncleared derivative transactions. The Group of 20 nations has agreed that standardised over-the-counter derivatives should use clearing houses by the end of 2012 in an effort to improve transparency and safety of financial instruments blamed for exacerbating the financial crisis.

But there remain differences on what to do with uncleared transactions, with the US proposing to force counterparties to stump up more cash or safe securities against trade – a move fiercely opposed by banks and some large non-financial derivatives users.

Mr Geithner’s call for a common standard for margin – in the same way, he said, as the Basel committee agrees international bank capital rules – comes after warnings from Wall Street banks that business is set to migrate to Asia.

“Risk in derivatives will become concentrated in those jurisdictions with the least oversight. This is a recipe for another crisis,” Mr Geithner said. On bank capital rules, he said “a simple common equity surcharge should be applied internationally”.

Mr Geithner’s warning about a race to the bottom came as the International Monetary Fund backed the UK in a European fight over bank capital rules. The IMF said European Union members should be allowed to “gold-plate” capital requirements with higher minimums when national circumstances warranted.

There remain other transatlantic differences on financial reform, highlighted by letter sent last month to Mr Geithner from Michel Barnier, the European commissioner responsible for financial markets, where he argued that Brussels was ahead of the US in several areas – including capital requirements for banks and limits on bonuses for financial executives. “The level playing field must be a reality, not an empty slogan,” he wrote.

Yet Europe, too, is also most concerned by developments in other regions. Concerns that the imposition of tougher regulatory standards within the 27-country European Union bloc will simply push business into markets where standards are less onerous have been raised repeatedly in Europe.

 The argument was made forcefully during the battle over new EU hedge fund rules, with claims that funds would move to Switzerland or Singapore – and resurfaced in the effort to cap bank bonuses.

The response of EU policymakers has been to publicly downplay the likely loss of business – but to also urge global compliance tougher regulatory guidelines. Mr Barnier has warned financial groups not to make a “bad calculation” for short-term profits.


By Tom Braithwaite in Washington and Nikki Tait in Brussels

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011


Global Growth Hits Soft Patch, Expected to Rebound


IMF sees 2011 global growth broadly unchanged at 4.3 percent, 4.5 percent next year
 But weakness in U.S. and Japan, problems in euro area pose greater risks
 Strong policy adjustments needed to steer away from unbalanced growth

The global economy, hit by slowdowns in Japan and the United States, is expected to re-accelerate in the second half of the year, but growth remains unbalanced and concerted policy action by major economies is needed to avoid lurking dangers, the IMF says in its latest forecast.

Although the IMF kept its forecast for global growth broadly unchanged at 4.3 percent for this year, rising to 4.5 percent in 2012, the 187-member institution said the mild slowdown in the second quarter of 2011 “is not reassuring.”

While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the United States, and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO), released in São Paulo, Brazil.

The IMF also released updates to the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), which assesses trends in capital markets and the global financial system, and the Fiscal Monitor, which tracks changes in public finance and debt.

“A bump in the road”

Growth in the euro area, powered by more upbeat investment in Germany and France, has been better than expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries have triggered renewed financial volatility.

Speaking about the U.S. slowdown, Olivier Blanchard, the Fund’s Economic Counsellor, said he saw it more as “a bump in the road rather than something more worrisome,” although the U.S. recovery remained weak.

The IMF identified the following regional trends (see table):

• Asia: Growth in emerging Asia will decelerate only slightly from the very high levels of last year. Disruptions to regional production networks due to supply constraints from Japan appear contained, although some sectors, especially automobiles and electronics, could experience strains through the summer.

• Latin America will be bolstered by commodity exports and domestic demand, but the pace of growth will ease in some economies where policies have been tightening more aggressively to reduce risks of overheating.

• Europe: Growth in Europe’s emerging economies is now projected to be higher than previously expected in 2011, followed by a softening in 2012, driven in part by a sharp domestic demand cycle in Turkey.

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Activity is projected to continue strengthening, with domestic demand remaining robust, and commodity exporters benefiting from elevated prices.

• Middle East and North Africa: economic prospects remain clouded by political and social unrest, although the outlook has improved for some oil and mineral exporters.



Risks from overheating

In a number of emerging and developing economies that are already operating at or above precrisis levels of output, the IMF said the priority was to expeditiously tighten macroeconomic policies, and use exchange rate flexibility and macroprudential tools—possibly including capital controls—to help contain risks of boom-bust cycles.

For economies with excessive current account surpluses, particularly in Asia, demand rebalancing—through exchange rate appreciation and structural reforms—remains a top priority for securing balanced growth and employment gains in the medium term.

Financial sector risks rising

In its GFSR Update, the IMF said financial risks have increased since April for three reasons: first, mounting concern about the strength of the global economic recovery; second, worries about political support for adjustment in Europe’s periphery as well as political risks in addressing fiscal adjustment in some advanced economies; and third, spurred by a sustained period of low interest rates in advanced economies, a growing investor search for yield that risks building up future financial imbalances, especially in emerging market countries.

 “Policymakers continue to face the possibility of potentially large future shocks to the financial system, with the recent increase in financial risks adding to existing concerns,” said José Viñals, the IMF’s Financial Counsellor and head of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department.

The IMF said that given recent financial market concerns, policymakers need to intensify and accelerate their efforts to tackle the longstanding financial challenges of budget deficits, banking system vulnerabilities and financial sector reform.

There has been some work done to repair bank balance sheets, but progress has been slow. Some banks are still weighed down by lower quality assets, and important funding challenges remain. The results from the new round of European stress tests will mark an important watershed and banks will need to pick up the pace to rebuild their capital.

Tackling fiscal challenges

The United States and Japan are slow to come up with specific plans to bring down their high debt levels, while debt problems in some European countries mean financial markets are charging high rates to lend them money. The IMF said that given recent financial markets’ concerns, policymakers need to speed up efforts to tackle the longstanding financial challenges of government risk, banking system vulnerabilities, and the unintended consequences of low interest rates.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF said the United States deficit will be lower in 2011 than forecast in April. This is due to revenue increases, in part because of sizable capital gains in 2010, coupled with lower expenditures. As a result, the planned cutbacks for 2012 will not need to be as steep to meet the targets set by the government.

“What remains missing in the United States, however, is a political consensus on a comprehensive and balanced set of specific measures to underpin a credible medium-term adjustment plan with objectives endorsed by Congress,” said Carlo Cottarelli, head of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, which produced the report. “Without such a plan, yield on U.S. government paper would start reflecting a risk premium, which would not be good for the U.S. and the world economy.”

Reducing government debts and deficits is proceeding in many advanced economies—notably in most of Europe and in Canada—helped by bright spots of economic activity and growing government revenues.

The key fiscal priority for major advanced economies—especially the United States and Japan—is to implement credible and well-paced consolidation programs focused on bolstering medium-term debt sustainability. For the United States, it is critical to address the debt ceiling and launch a deficit reduction plan that includes entitlement reform and revenue-raising tax reform, the IMF said. In Japan, tax reform should be the centerpiece of a detailed medium-term deficit reduction package.

In emerging and low-income economies, fiscal deficits and debts are being reduced gradually. In several of these economies—including commodity producers benefiting from high export prices—the economic recovery has been faster, and the task is to avoid overheating, including by tightening fiscal policy faster than currently envisaged.

IMF Survey online  -   June 17, 2011

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