UTF-8 http://feraios.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default

Sunday, February 20, 2011


(clicking at the titled link we are redirected to the official view)


Below are given some results of studies of global environmental changes expressed by the statistics and the scale of various natural disasters, both atmospheric and geological in nature. On the basis of statistical data analysis for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, drift of the magnetic poles and other geological processes it has been demonstrated that the Earth’s geodynamic activity has been continuously increasing over the past 100 years, with this tendency substantially growing in recent decades. This is reflected in the number of casualties and the extent of economic damage caused by natural disasters. The global “energy spike” in endogenous and exogenous processes of the Earth started in the late 1990’s.
A similar trend can be observed in atmospheric processes, specifically the increased number of tornados, hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, etc. The global environmental changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors combine to amplify the negative effect on humanity.
It has to be acknowledged that humankind is not prepared to enter the era of global natural cataclysms, either technologically, economically, legally, or psychologically. A joint effort by scientists, international organizations and governments of different countries under the aegis of the UN is needed to take effective measures to counter natural disasters and to minimize the casualties and damage they cause to humanity.


The time has come when accumulated earth science data make it possible to take a deeper look into the nature’s global changes, and reconsider their extent and their role in the sustainable development of civilization. Many world scientists realize that not only do these changes affect the climate, but they have an impact on virtually the entire volume of the Earth, from its core to the atmosphere and magnetosphere.
Global Changes of the Environment, “GEOCHANGE”, means natural, planet-wide changes in nature, influenced by endogenous, exogenous and cosmic factors occurring within the solar system and having negative implications for the sustainable development of humankind.
This summarizing scientific work by IC GCGE, “GEOCHANGE”, is our attempt to demonstrate the extent of these processes and how they influence the development of humankind. Those processes may destabilize the progress of civilization unless some preemptive and effective joint action is taken by the international community to ensure the maximum possible reduction in the number of casualties and economic damage caused by natural disasters.
The first report by the Chairman of IC GCGE is a fundamental initial document justifying the International Communiqué on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”. In the next IC GCGE reports, greater involvement of scientists from different countries as well as consideration of aspects and issues not covered in the first report is planned.
All IC GCGE reports will be published in an international scientific journal titled “GEOCHANGE: Problems of Global Changes of the Geological Environment”.
When preparing this report, the following basic principles have been observed:
- All data provided in the report are verifiable based on references to literary sources or databases available on the Internet.
- The report primarily uses databases of various countries’ public bodies or authoritative international organizations.
- To avoid subjectivity, the report provides raw data without any special mathematical treatment. In some cases, for visualization purposes, minimal mathematical processing is employed, for instance, when drafting various trends or averaging data.
- The text has been written in a popular science style so as to be understood by non-specialists.
- The report contains a lot of illustrative material to maximize the reader’s perception of the information.
- Because the report addresses some issues covering various fields of science and issues at the interface between different disciplines, the text provides basic concepts of the most important terms used.
We observe that, along with the rise of our planet’s average temperature, there is a simultaneous increase not only in the activity of extreme weather events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, etc., but also of the number of strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, with the movement of the magnetic poles accelerating and the Earth’s shape and rotation rate changing. Therefore, it is evident that global climate change is only a part of global environmental changes.

Fig. 1. Casualty breakdown by natural disaster
types for the period between 1947 and 1997

(According to data by K. Y. Kondratiev et al, 2005)

1 – Tornadoes, typhoons, storms (1,500,000 dead);
2 – Earthquakes (400,000 dead);

3 – Floods (360,000 dead);

4 – Thunderstorms (40,000 dead);

5 – Tsunamis (30,000 dead);

6 – Volcanic eruptions (15,000 dead)

Natural disasters cause enormous economic damage to many countries, but the most tragic consequence of their manifestation is numerous casualties. According to research by K. Y. Kondratiev (Kondratiev, 2005), the majority of human lives worldwide are claimed by tornadoes, typhoons (hurricanes) and storms (64%). Earthquakes, in terms of casualty toll, rank second (17%), followed by floods (15%), thunderstorms (2%), tsunamis (1%), and volcanic eruptions (1%).
Nevertheless, in our opinion, these statistics do not so much represent a stable persistent pattern as they are a particular case associated with the specific time period being considered. Alternatively, during the period from 1999 to 2010, earthquakes would be in the lead, followed by tornadoes, typhoons, and storms ranking second, and tsunamis being third.
Below are given some actual data and their brief analysis, the conclusions of which are disappointing and articulate humankind’s entering an era of global cataclysms for which people are not ready yet, either technologically, economically, legally or psychologically.
While writing this first IC GCGE report, we tried to minimize subjective approaches and opinions, relying solely on the facts and primary conclusions that are evident or the most well-grounded. That is why the last section of this report, “Possible forecasts of some natural disasters and cosmic processes” is placed beyond this report as Appendix 1. That section is attached as additional information for discussion.
This report has been published in the international scientific journal “GEOCHANGE: Problems of Global Changes of the Geological Environment” (№ 1, 2010) and is available for open discussion on www.geochange-report.org website. All proposals, recommendations, and comments will be considered and posted on IC GCGE website.
It is also planned to discuss the report during IC GCGE General Assembly and at the International Conference on Global Changes of the Environment (2011).
In the next IC GCGE reports, we plan to address the following issues not covered in the first report:
- Near-earth space;
- Impact of cosmic processes on the Earth;
- Problems of global desertification;
- Land degradation;
- Melting of glaciers;
- Natural causes of ozone layer depletion;
- Global changes of the geological environment contributing to disturbance of the natural ecosystem.


                                          Horrifying statistics!

Below is a graph showing numbers of casualties during major earthquakes, covering the period from August 1999 to January 2010. As one can see from the graph, the straight-line trend indicates the tendency to a sharp increase in fatalities over the past decade.
Meanwhile, a kind of cyclicity associated with specific events that have significantly influenced the statistics can be observed. For instance, the sharp increase in the number of casualties since 2003 was caused by the disastrous magnitude 9.1 earthquake with an epicenter north of Sumatra Island on Dec. 26, 2004, which resulted in a very powerful tsunami affecting the coasts of 14 countries. Some 230,000 people died as a result of the earthquake and tsunami.
The second maximum occurred in January 2010 and is associated with the catastrophic Haiti magnitude 7,1 earthquake (12.01.2010), claiming lives of 222,570 people.

Fig. 2. Casualty breakdown by natural disaster
types for the period between 1947 and 1997
(by E. Khalilov, 2010, according to USGS data)
Graph for numbers of fatalities during major earthquakes
for certain years is marked in blue.

Straight-line trend reflecting tendency of fatalities to grow in numbers
over last decade is marked in red.
So, certain natural disasters can make a significant contribution to the overall statistics, and such events have a special place in the history of the world civilization. Below is a table indicating the number of people killed during large earthquakes from August 1999 to February 2010. Table 1 mentions only the earthquakes with over 10,000 fatalities.
Number of casualties during major earthquakes
for the period between August 1999 and February 2010

The table demonstrates that the number of casualties caused by strong earthquakes is growing year by year, this tendency being distinctly displayed by the fatality graph (Fig. 2) and the straight-line trend showing the general tendency.
Meanwhile, the pernicious effects of natural disasters are not limited to human victims only. Major natural disasters may, in a short time, make a substantial impact on the Earth’s global characteristics: its shape, angular velocity of rotation, and variations of the spatial position of its axis. These factors, in their turn, can cause global climate change.
For instance, the catastrophic magnitude 9.1 earthquake of December 26, 2004 near northern Sumatra generated a very large tsunami and became a cause of death of about 300 thousand people, entering into the history of humankind as one of the most immense natural disasters ever. It is not merely about the monstrous number of people fallen victim to the earthquake and the tsunami it caused. It is, above all, about an amazing geological event with a scope so large that it influenced planet-wide processes. The catastrophic earthquake in the Southeast Asia changed the Earth’s geophysical characteristics. As the Spaceflight Now website reports, NASA scientists have established that the underground shocks have affected the planet’s rotation rate, lengthened the day, and slightly altered the planet’s shape. Moreover, the earthquake changed the position of the Geographic North Pole. It shifted by 2.5 cm towards 145° east longitude. The alteration of the planet’s rotation rate caused lengthening of the 24-hour day by 2.68 microseconds, and the movement of masses led to a change in the planet’s shape.
Catastrophic Indonesian tsunami of December 26, 2004
The catastrophic earthquake of December 26, 2004 occurred as an upthrust at the convergent boundary between the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates in the northern Sumatra region. Within about 2 minutes, the rupture activated elastic deformation that had been accumulating in that focal area for centuries as a result of the continuing subduction (sliding) of the Indo-Australian plate under the Eurasian plate. The aftershock zone on December 26 had a length of about 1300 km. Even if we assume that only some of the aftershocks reflected the rupture plane of the main shock, then, according to a number of researchers, its length is considerably more than 500 km. As Chen Ji indicates in his work (2005), geodetic observations and computer simulations enabled scientists to conclude that the maximum underthrust during the earthquake was about 20 m at the depth of 18 km. It was accompanied by seabed shift – about 5 m vertically and 11 m horizontally.

GEOCHANGE: Problems of Global Changes of the Geological Environment. Vol.1, London, 2010,  ISSN 2218-5798


Relation between solar activity and seismic and volcanic activity
  • Shumilov, O. I., Kasatkina, E. A., Raspopov, O. M., Turunen, E., Jacoby, G., & Morner, N.A. Influence of Cosmic Ray Intensity Modulated by Solar Activity and Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate. The solar cycle and terrestrial climate, Solar and space weather Euroconference (1 : 2000 : Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain) Proceedings of the 1st Solar and Space Weather Euroconference, 25-29 September 2000, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain. Edited by A. Wilson. Noordwijk, Netherlands: ESA Publications Division, 2000 xi, 680 p. ESA SP, Vol. 463, ISBN 9290926937, p.547.

  • Abdurakhmanov A.I., Firstov L.P., Shirokov V.A. Possible connection of volcanic eruptions with 11-year cyclicality of solar activity. In the book Bulletin of volcanic stations. Moscow, Science, 1976, No.52, p.3-10.

  • Gadjiyev Y.A., Dadashev R.M., Sapunov A.G. Periodicity of mud volcanoes eruptions and solar activity. Transactions of Azerbaijani Academy of Science, 1985, v.12, No.11, p.38-42.

  • Ivanov-Kholodniy G.S. Solar activity and geophysical processes. Earth and the Universe. 2000, No.1, p.30-36.

  • Kalinin Y.D. Solar conditionality of days duration change and seismic activity. Krasnoyarsk, Institute of Physics of Siberian Department of USSR Academy of Science, 1974, p.23.

  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Bourgas, 2008, 304 p.

  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Cycles in geodynamic processes: Their possible nature. Moscow, Scientific World, 2009, 520 p.

  • Lursmanashvili O.V. About possibility of influence of solar activity upon distribution of Caucasian earthquakes. Reports of Georgian Academy of Science, 1972, v.65, No.2, p.309-312.

  • Lyatkher V.M. Variation of seismic regime of Earth under the influence of solar cycle length changes. Earth Physics, 2000, No.10, p.93-96.

  • Mekhtiyev Sh.F., Khalilov E.N. About possibility of detection of connection between volcanic eruptions and solar activity. Volcanology and Seismology, M., No.3, 1985, p.64-67.

  • Valyayev B.M., Telepin M.A., Berejnaya E.A., Vakhtangashvili V.Kh. and others Correlation of mud volcanic activity with solar activity (on example of Akhtal volcano) - Lectures of USSR Academy of Science, 1980, v.255, No.5, geology, p.1204-1207.

  • Sitinskiy A.D. About influence of solar activity upon Earth seismicity. USSR Academy of Science reports, v.208, 1973, No.5.

  • Sitinskiy A.D. Dependence of Earth seismicity upon solar processes in interplanetary medium and atmosphere. In book Atlas of temporary variations of natural, anthropogenic and social processes. 2nd volume. M., Scientific World, 1998, p.70-72.

  • Simpson I.F. Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes. Earth and Planet, Sci. Letter, 1968, v.3, No.5, p.417-425.

  • Stoyko A., Stoyko N. Rotation de la terra, phenomenes geophysiques et activite du soleil. – Bull. Cl. Sci. Acad. Roy.Belg., 1969, t.55, p.279-285.

  • Tzirel S.V. About possible dependence of volcanic activity upon solar activity. In book Atlas of temporary variations of natural, anthropogenic and social processes. 3rd volume, M., Yanus-K, 2002, p.254-256.

  • Mekhtiyev Sh.F., Khalilov E.N. Rhythms of Earth Cataclysms. Baku, Elm, 1988, 108 pp.

  • Sobolev G.A., Shestopalov I.P., Kharin Y.P. Geoeffective solar flashes and seismic activity of the Earth // Physics of the Earth. 1998. №7, p. 85–90.

  • Rogojin I.P., Shestopalov I.P. Century cycles of seismicity of the Earth and seismic safety of the atomic power station. Nuclear strategy, Moskow, №29, 2007, p.118.

  • Gokov, A.M. Geomagnetic and Seismic Activities Relationship. Microwave & Telecommunication Technology, 2007. CriMiCo 2007. 17th International Crimean Conference Volume , Issue , 10-14 Sept. 2007 Page(s):841 – 842. Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/CRMICO.2007.4368969.

  • Barsukov O.M. Solar's badgers of flash, the sudden beginnings and earthquakes. News of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Physics of the Earth., 1991г., N12. p. 93-97.

  • Gousheva, M. N.; Georgieva, K. Y.; Kirov, B. B.; Atanasov, D. On the Relation Between Solar Activity and Seismicity. RAST 2003: Proceedings of the International Conference on Recent Advances in Space Technologies, held November 20-22, 2003, in Istanbul, Turkey. Edited by S. Kurnaz, F. Ince and S. Onbaşioglu. IEEE Catalog Number 03EX743. ISBN: 0-7803-8142-4. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2003109595. Published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2003, p.236
  • Zhang, Gui-Qing. Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities Acta Seismologica Sinica, Volume 11, 1998, Issue 4, pp.495-500.

  • Odintsov S., Boyarchuk K., Georgieva K., Kirov B. and Atanasov D. Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and their relation to solar activity. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Volume 31, Issues 1-3, 2006, Pages 88-93.

  • Odintsov S.D., G.S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi, K. Georgieva, 2007, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2007, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 608–610.

  • Kirov. B. Georgiyeva. K. Solar cycle influence on the seismic activity. Bulgarian Journal of Physics 27 No 2, 2OOO, p.35-42.

  • WANG Zhongrui, Song FENG and TANG Maocang. A Relationship between Solar Activity and Frequency of Natural Disasters in China. Advances in atmospheric scienes. Vol.20, No 6, 2003, PP. 934–939.

  • Schulenberg K. Correlation Between Time-Specific Solar Activity and Subsequent Earthquakes. Presented at WPGM 2006 in Beijing, China on Thursday July 27-th.
    External link

Relation between solar activity and global climate change
  • Athaturov M.E., Budiko M.I., Vinnikov K.Y. and others. Volcanos, stratospheric an aerosol and a climate of the Earth. L: Hydrometeoixdat, 1986, 256 p.

  • Budiko M.I. The climate fluctuation - L: Hydrometeoizdat. 1974, 280 p.

  • Budiko M.I. The problem of carbon dioxide. L: Hydrometeoizdat. 1979, 59.

  • Budiko M.I. The influence of the volcanic eruption to the climate. Meteorology and Hydrology, 1984,
    № 3, p. 5-11.

  • Cadle R.D. Volcanic emission of holides and sulfur compounds to the troposphere and stratosphere. - J. Geophys. Res., 1975, vol. 80, N12, p. 1650-1652.

  • Gerlach N.M. Evolution of volcanic gas analysis from Surtsey volcano, Iceland, 1964-1967. J. Volcan. Geotherm. Res., 1980, N 8, p. 191-198.

  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Burgas, SWB, 2008, 304 p.

  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Regularity of spatial-temporary distribution of volcano eruptions. International Academy of Science. II&E. Science without borders, Vol. 1, 2003-2004, ICSD/IAS, Innsbruck,
    pp. 243-251.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): www.ipcc.ch

Accelerating of Earth's Magnetic Poles
  • Dr.Tony Phillips. Responsible NASA official: John M. Horack. Earth's Inconstant Magnetic Field. Our planet's magnetic field is in a constant state of change, say researchers who are beginning to understand how it behaves and why. The Science and Technology Directorate at NASA's Marshall Space FlightCenter. http://science.nasa.gov

  • V.V. Kuznetsov, Geomagnetism. North Magnetic Pole

  • 2006, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2006, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 280–288.

  • Natural Resources Canada. Geological Survey of Canada. Geomagnetism. North Magnetic Pole. http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geomag/nmp/northpole_e.php

  • Kerton, Adrian K. Climate Change and the Earth's Magnetic Poles, A Possible Connection. Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, January 2009 , pp. 75-83(9) Publisher: Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd.

  • Earth's North Magnetic Pole Drifting Quickly. American Geophysical Union: http://www.agu.org

  • By Mark Floyd. Movement of Earth's North Magnetic Pole Accelerating Rapidly. Source: Joe Stoner. http://oregonstate.edu

  • Link found between tropical rainfall and Earth's magnetic field.

  • Mads Faurschou Knudsen and Peter Riisager. Is there a link between Earth's magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation? Geology; January 2009; v. 37; no. 1; p. 71-74; DOI:10.1130/G25238A.1
    © 2009 Geological Society of America

  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Influence of cyclicity of eruptions of volcanos on global changes of a climate. In book: /Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Burgas, SWB, 2008, 304 p./, pp.214-229.

  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Cycles in geodynamic processes: Their possible nature. Moscow, Scientific World, 2009, 520 p.

  • Dyachenco A.I. Magnetic poles of the Earth. The Moscow center of continuous mathematical education. Moscow, 2003, 48 pp.

  • Brian Vastag. North Magnetic Pole Is Shifting Rapidly Toward Russia.National Geographic News. December 15, 2005, USA. http://news.nationalgeographic.com

  • Dmitriev A.N. Planetophysical state of the Earth and life. IICA Transactions, Volume 4, 1997.





Post a Comment

<< Home